Findings of Portland Peak Oil Task Force

John Kaufmann testimony on Portland Peak Oil Task Force

Kaufmann's presentation outlines the process and findings of the Portland (Ore.) Peak Oil Task Force, which completed its work in March 2007.

View video at this link:
http://www.energychallenge.tv/index.php/archives/124
(wait about 45 seconds for it to download and it will start playing automatically)

(1 Nov 2007) presentation of John Kaufmann, former lead staffer for the groundbreaking Portland (Ore.) Peak Oil Task Force, to the Connecticut Legislative Peak Oil and Natural Gas Caucus. Kaufmann is a Senior Policy Analyst at the Oregon Department of Energy.

Notes from video:
First, the Task Force must establish paramaters - how to tackle the problem:
--agree upon key assumptions - peak oil is innevitable, we must prepare for it
--cant count on magic supply bullet to come along that will solve this for us
--fully explore impacts first, then suggest recommendations

Create a scenario table (speed of impact/ severity of impact)
Assume gradual slide, mod. severity, then prepare for that -how do we transition

Identify Impact pathways - multiple interrelated impacts from reduced supply of oil/energy

Understand that energy affects everything on which the community depends (not just transportation) - then, split into four subgroups to address main impact areas -
1)Land use/transportation; 2)economy; 3)public & soc.services; 4)food & agriculture

Identify Key questions for each group.
Identify Key impacts for each group.
Make Recommendations: based onTwo Pillars -- how reduce exposure; how strengthen community
Urgency: Need to start NOW, while we still have some resources. Need lead time - some of these things will take 10-15 yrs to get into place.

Recommendations:
1. reduce oil & gas use 50% in 25 yrs
2. Inform, educate, build awareness, unite people around a vision, mobilize people's creativity, engagement.
3. educate civic leadership, decision makers, opinion leaders, spur govt planning & action
4.Land use patterns, reduce transportation needs, walkability, infill, mixed use, neighborhood centers
5. electrified transportation, mass transit, intermodal transportation for freight
6. get people out of cars-- variety of efficient renewable transportation choices, walk, bike, rideshare, mass transit - alternatives must be safe and convenient
7. Dramatically ramp up energy efficiency programs - buildings, residential, commercial
8. preserve local food production capability - farmland, processessing, urban gardens, CSA's, educate citizens in food growing, preserving, nutrition
9. Promote sustainable businesses, EE-RE (cleantech), help biz assess impacts, identify opportunities, workforce re-training
10. preserve community safety net, protect vulnerable populations - health, hunger, shelter options, maintain a sense of community
11. emergency planning: prepare for sudden shocks - emergency care, food, transportation

Links:
Slideshow: Peak oil causes and prospects
Peak Oil Briefing Book: issues, impacts, vulnerabilities
Resolution establishing Portland Peak Oil Task Force to assess vulnerability
Resolution accepting POTF final report, goals, and recommendations
Peak Oil Task Force final report
Portland Office of Sustainable Development

California Global Warming Impacts

Union of Concerned Scientists


(See other videos on California Impacts of Global Warming : Overview, Health, Water, Agriculture, Wildfires, Energy, Coastlines http://www.climatechoices.org/impacts_overview/index.html )

Global warming is under way, mainly due to the burning of fossil fuels for energy. Some effects on public health and the environment are now unavoidable. However, the most devastating consequences can be avoided if we act swiftly and decisively to reduce global warming emissions.

If global warming emissions continue unabated, California is expected to face poorer air quality, a sharp rise in extreme heat, a less reliable water supply, more dangerous wildfires, and expanding risks to agriculture.

The severity of global warming's impact will depend on the level of our emissions, as the following chart shows.

If the industrialized nations follow California's lead and reduce their global warming emissions 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050, and if the industrializing nations following the lower emissions path shown here, we would be on track to keep the increase in temperature within the lower warming range, thus avoiding the most severe consequences.

Conversely, if we continue to grow without taking steps to cut emissions, we are likely to see a dramatic increase in temperature, which could bring severe consequences for California and many parts of the world.

The ideas and many of the technologies needed to bring emissions down are already available. All we need is the will to use them. Being first in the world to do so could bring economic benefits to our state, while failing to do so will almost assuredly cause great hardship. The choices we make today will determine the climate our children inherit.

Download report:
Our Changing Climate: Assessing the Risks to California
A Summary Report Produced by the California Climate Change Center in Collaboration with the Union of Concerned Scientists

Peak Oil for Policy Makers

Richard Heinberg and Julian Darley of the Post Carbon Institute present an intro to Peak Oil for local policy makers. What is peak oil? What's the evidence? Why don't we just drill for more? How does this relate to climate change? And what can policymakers do in the face of these daunting challenges?

Peak Oil: Challenges for Local Governments

Talk (excerpt) given by Daniel Lerch, Program Manager of the Post Carbon Institute, and author of Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty. (free abridged download)
From a presentation given at a 2007 lecture in Hamilton, Ontario.

He describes some of the short and long term challenges that peak oil will create for local governments, and underscores the urgent need for cities to assess community vulnerability and develop contingency plans and policy and program changes. Peak oil clearly will have very local repercussions, but prompt planning can take the edge off of some of the negative effects.